Methods Center

Patrick W. Schmidt

Researcher at the University of Zurich

Research Interests

  • Bayesian estimation of Hidden-Markov models for intensive longitutudanal data
  • Elicitation of uncertainty and ambiguity perception
  • Forecast rationality tests with probabilistic perspective
  • Spatio-temporal infectious disease models for causal inference

Curriculum Vitae

since 2016
PhD Studies in Economics

Graduate School of Economics, Finance and Management Frankfurt Goethe University

2018
Short-term Visitor

University College London

2017
Visiting PhD

University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona

2014
Diploma in Mathematics

University of Heidelberg

2012
Bachelor of Science in Political Economics

University of Heidelberg

Publications

Selected Publications

  • Eyting M., Schmidt P., (2021). Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions, European Economic Review. In press. Article
  • Schmidt P., Katzfuss M., Gneiting T., (2021). Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(6), 728--743. GitRepo
  • Schmidt P., (2017). Discussion of "Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation". The Annals of Applied Statistics, 11(4):1883-1885. Article 

Working Papers

  • Inference under Superspreading: Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Germany. Link

  • Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency. Link

  • Elicitation of ambiguous beliefs with mixing bets. Link

For Information on work in progress, Packages in R etc. Refer to my website