The paper studies the current COVID-19 pandemic by applying an adapted epidemiologic model, where each individual is in one of the five states “susceptible”, “infected”, “removed”, “immune healthy” or “dead”. We extend the basic model with time-invariant transition rates between these states by allowing for time-dependent infection rates as a consequence of lockdowns and social distancing policies as well as for time-dependent mortality rates as a result of changing infection patterns. Our model proves to be appropriate to calibrate and simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Germany between January and October 2020. We provide deeper insights about some key indicators such as the reproduction number, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the development of the infection and mortality rates.
Der Artikel ist erschienen in: Accounting in Europe, 17. Jg., S. 204 - 237.
Die Autorin Viktoria Müller ist wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin am Lehrstuhl für Internationale Rechnungslegung und Wirtschaftsprüfung, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Universität Tübingen.
In this paper, Müller analyzes the consequences of cash flow hedge accounting on portfolio earnings of firms focusing on main changes between IFRS 9 and IAS 39. For this purpose, she develops a simulation study which illustrates the quantitative effects on the accounting entries according to the currently applicable hedge accounting methods. It is especially addressed what accounting differences arise and how these distinctions may affect a firm’s earnings. Furthermore, I examine to which firms early switching becomes especially desirable or burdensome. This information is particularly useful to managers and investors. The paper shows that portfolio earnings are affected differently. In the model, IAS 39 may lead to higher or lower earnings for increasing deviations between foreign and domestic interest rates. Additionally, sensitivity to volatility changes varies among the methods. Moreover, a partly ineffective hedging relationship does not necessarily decrease earnings compared to its fully effective counterpart.
In den WiWi NEWS Sommer 2020 berichteten wir über das Forschungsprojekt am Lehrstuhl "Seltene Disaster - Wo sie zu finden sind" und in der Ringvorlesung zur Corona-Pandemie an der WiSo-Fakultät wurde eine Vorlesung zu diesem Projekt am Lehrstuhl Statistik, Ökonometrie und Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung auf You Tube übertragen.
Das Paper “Empirical Asset Pricing with Rare Disaster Risk: A Simulation-Based Approach” von Jantje Sönksen und Joachim Grammig wurde im Journal of Econometrics zur Publikation angenommen. Das Paper ist Open-Access und damit schon jetzt online frei verfügbar. Das Journal of Econometrics ist die führende internationale Fachzeitschrift der Ökonometrie.
We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent sample selection problem associated with measuring the effect of rare disaster risk on asset prices. An analysis based on postwar U.S. and historical multi-country panel data yields estimates of investor preference parameters that are economically plausible and robust with respect to alternative specifications. The estimated model withstands tests of validity; the model-implied key financial indicators and timing premium all have reasonable magnitudes. These findings suggest that the rare disaster hypothesis can help restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets when allowing for multi-period disaster events. Our methodological contribution is a new econometric framework for empirical asset pricing with rare disaster risk.
The paper "Free Shipping and Product Returns" has been published in the Journal of Marketing Research. The article is joint work by Edlira Shehu, Dominik Papies, and Scott Neslin. The Journal of Marketing Research is one of the field's top journals, rated A+ in the German Jourqual ranking and part of the Financial Times journal list.
Free shipping promotions have become popular among online retailers. However, little is known about their influence on consumers’ purchases, return behavior, and, ultimately, firm profit. The authors propose that free shipping promotions encourage customers to make riskier purchases, leading to more product returns. They estimate the impact of these promotions on purchase incidence, high-risk and low-risk spend, and return share. The results show that free shipping promotions increase expenditure for high-risk products, expanding their share of the consumer’s market basket and thus increasing the overall return rate. This is validated in a field experiment. A field test and an online lab experiment analyze the mechanism linking free shipping and returns. The results suggest that the free shipping effect occurs through consumers’ perceptions that free shipping serves as a risk premium compensating them for potential returns and through positive affect generated by the promotion. A simulation shows that for the focal firm, free shipping promotions increase net sales volume, but higher product returns and lost shipping revenue render these promotions unprofitable.
A pdf is available here.
Using human skeletal remains, this volume traces health, workload and violence in the European population over the past 2,000 years. Health was surprisingly good for people who lived during the early Medieval Period. The Plague of Justinian of the sixth century was ultimately beneficial for health because the smaller population had relatively more resources that contributed to better living conditions. Increasing population density and inequality in the following centuries imposed an unhealthy diet - poor in protein - on the European population. With the onset of the Little Ice Age in the late Middle Ages, a further health decline ensued, which was not reversed until the nineteenth century. While some aspects of health declined, other attributes improved. During the early modern period, interpersonal violence (outside of warfare) declined possibly because stronger states and institutions were able to enforce compromise and cooperation. European health over the past two millennia was hence multifaceted in nature.
Valeria Merlo (Professor of International Economics at the University of Tübingen), Georg Wamser (Professor of Economics at the University of Tübingen) and Sven Blank (Research economist at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Research Centre), Peter H. Egger (Professor of Applied Economics at ETH Zurich) are the authors of the recent publication of the Deutsche Bundesbank about the costs of the Brexit. Read the Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief and the respective RSIT working paper: A Structural Quantitative Analysis of Services Trade De-liberalization
When it comes to trade in goods and services, the European Union (EU) is the United Kingdom’s most important partner. By the same token, the United Kingdom is also an important trading partner for the EU. The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU means that new market access arrangements need to be agreed between the two parties. These changes are likely to come with a hefty price tag for both sides. If we want to quantify these costs, though, it is not enough to simply look at goods transactions and traditional trade barriers such as customs tariffs to provide a quantitative picture of the possible repercussions of Brexit. Both the United Kingdom and individual EU Member States rank among the world’s most important exporters of services, which is why, in a new study, we investigate – among other issues – the potential costs of a de-liberalisation of trade in services.