24.03.2026
IRex:RESEARCH Working Paper #5: Got off easy? A spatial analysis of the 2026 state election in Baden-Württemberg.
Autor*innen: Tim Fröhlich, Bjarne Pfau, Rolf Frankenberger und Katharina Mayer
We analyze the 2026 state election in Baden-Württemberg from a spatially oriented perspective and examine the municipal patterns of first- and second-vote results, particularly for Alliance 90/The Greens, the CDU, and the AfD. Based on cartographic and statistical analyses, we demonstrate that the election results are structured along a pronounced urban-rural divide: While the Greens were able to maintain or expand their strength primarily in urban and university-oriented areas, the CDU and AfD achieved their greatest successes predominantly in rural areas. The AfD was able to significantly increase its share of the vote compared to 2021, but fell short of its own expectations and continues to show its greatest weaknesses in urban centers. The CDU gained ground primarily in rural areas and maintained its role as the dominant force in many rural regions. Thus, the AfD and the CDU are essentially competing for the same areas. Building on these findings, we develop an interpretive framework that captures the election dynamics along two lines of conflict: the contrast between urban and rural lifestyles, and that between open and closed societies. This contributes to the further development of spatial and conflict-theoretical explanations of current political polarization.
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