Methods Center

Patrick W. Schmidt

Researcher at the University of Zurich

Research Interests

  • Bayesian estimation of Hidden-Markov models for intensive longitutudanal data
  • Elicitation of uncertainty and ambiguity perception
  • Forecast rationality tests with probabilistic perspective
  • Spatio-temporal infectious disease models for causal inference

Curriculum Vitae

since 2016
PhD Studies in Economics

Graduate School of Economics, Finance and Management

Frankfurt Goethe University

Short-term Visitor

University College London

Visiting PhD

University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona

Diploma in Mathematics

University of Heidelberg

Bachelor of Science in Political Economics

University of Heidelberg


Selected Publications

  • Eyting M., Schmidt P., (2021). Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions, European Economic Review. In press. Article
  • Schmidt P., Katzfuss M., Gneiting T., (2021). Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(6), 728--743. GitRepo
  • Schmidt P., (2017). Discussion of "Elicitability and backtesting: Perspectives for banking regulation". The Annals of Applied Statistics, 11(4):1883-1885. Article 

Working Papers

  • Inference under Superspreading: Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Germany. Link

  • Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency. Link

  • Elicitation of ambiguous beliefs with mixing bets. Link

For Information on work in progress, Packages in R etc. Refer to my website