Speaker: Damian Curran (U of Melbourne)
Time: Friday, October 30, 10:15 to 11:45
Location: Keplerstraße 2, room 181 & Zoom: https://zoom.us/my/lea.frermann
Title: A Dataset of Motion-Response Text Pairs from US District Court Cases for Legal Judgment Prediction
Abstract: Many existing Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) datasets are based on test conditions which do not resemble real-world contexts, in that both the input to the task and the predicted case outcome labels are drawn from the same document. In other words, the outcome was known at the time the input was written. By utilizing the chronological event logs of court cases in US district courts, called dockets, we create a 1.6k instance outcome prediction dataset called MOP-2026 where the text inputs predate the outcome. We describe the collection, filtering and labelling of the pairs of opposing argument text and define a new subtask of LJP called motion-outcome prediction with a ternary label set. We provide baseline results and measure the performance of a variety of LLMs on the task. While exceeding naive baselines, even the latest LLMs perform below most reported metrics in LJP, supporting recent commentary that valid test conditions greatly impact predictive performance, and that many earlier LJP systems appear to overstate predictive capability in real world settings. We close with a discussion of the inherent challenges of LJP.
Speaker bio: Prior to pivoting into a career in technology, Damian practiced as a commercial lawyer in Melbourne and London. In 2024 he commenced his PhD in computer science at the University of Melbourne, exploring the challenges of using AI in the legal industry. He has honours degrees in Law and Civil Engineering and a Masters in Artificial Intelligence. He consults on AI deployment in legal institutions, works with the University of Melbourne's Centre for Digital Ethics and AI, and has taught across its computing, law and business schools.