How certain do children need to be before making a decision? This “decision threshold” influences whether they carefully weigh options or jump to conclusions — a bias linked to superstition and conspiracy beliefs.  

A new study by educational researchers from the Hector Research Institute of Education Sciences and Psychology together with the University of Education Ludwigsburg introduces the Decision Threshold Beads Task (DTBT): the first tool to measure decision thresholds in children using objective probabilities and a Signal Detection Theory approach. 

Key Findings

Conducted with 299 talented primary school children from the Hector Children’s Academy program, this study was published in the Journal of Experimental Child Psychology and reveals that: 

• The average child in the study waited until they were about 67% confident before deciding — less certainty than adults typically need.
• Children's decision thresholds are linked to cognitive biases and math skills
• The DTBT is highly sensitive and valid, standing apart from traditional measures
• Findings offer new pathways for improving decision-making research and statistical literacy education