In our initial projects, we simulate emotional cues in order to explore how belief dynamics are driving entertainment utility and consequently the demand for sports. In a follow-up study we propose utilizing match-level suspense and surprise as alternative policy targets for league organizers and managers. Through simulations, we derive a benchmark range for suspense and surprise based on a perfectly balanced match before analyzing over 25,000 men's matches (2010/11-2023/24) and 725 women's matches (2023/24) from Europe's top football leagues. 

Funding / Support: Intramural Funding, Union of European Football Associations (UEFA).

Principal Investigators: Raphael Flepp, Georgios Nalbantis, Tim Pawlowski, Travis Richardson

Publications: 

• Emotional cues and the demand for televised sports: evidence from the UEFA Champions League. Published in the Journal of Sports Economics.
• Suspense and surprise in European football. Available at arXiv.